Corporate Foresight
Corporate foresight helps organizations detect and make sense of change (emerging weak signals and trends) in their environment. It is about understanding how the future could look like and what this implies for an organization.
Together we explore the diverse facets of this field through articles on foresight's state, a survey revealing applications across industries, and engaging podcasts providing comprehensive insights.
Join me in unraveling the intricacies of strategic thinking, scenario planning, and business wargaming. From practical steps for businesses to resilience strategies, we'll navigate the uncertainties of the future together.
Table of Content
- How Businesses Anticipate and Shape the Future – Article Collection
- Strategic Business Planning Insights – Podcast Series
- Business Uncertainties and Future Scenarios – Video
- Strategic Foresight Unpacked – Book
- Revolutionizing Design Thinking with Strategic Foresight – Research Highlights
- Understanding Tomorrow's Business Strategies
- The Power of Scenarios in Strategic Foresight
- Strategic Foresight's Role in Value Creation for Firms
How Businesses Anticipate and Shape the Future
State of Foresight @ World Economic Forum
This compilation features a series of brief research articles that explore different facets of implementing corporate foresight in organizations. These articles offer diverse perspectives on how corporate foresight can be effectively utilized.
In the evolving business landscape, reacting solely to short-term developments is inadequate; companies must embrace strategic foresight to anticipate challenges beyond the horizon. This essential practice empowers organizations to explore, imagine, and anticipate the future, helping them make informed decisions amidst increasing uncertainty and complexity.
Answering key questions on foresight deliverables, usage, and corporate standing is crucial for navigating instability and unpredictability with confidence.
Learn more about it and check the questions in this article:
The world’s top companies are using strategic foresight | World Economic Forum
In an increasingly unpredictable world, executing strategic foresight is becoming more important and more difficult at the same time. Strategic foresight helps explore, imagine, and anticipate the future in an open but structured way. Research suggests as many as 90% of top organizations are already using this method in their business strategy.
This article underscores the crucial role of corporate foresight in seizing opportunities. It delves into the principles of interpreting weak signals, evaluating environmental shifts, and assessing future scenarios. The comprehensive survey by the Bavarian Foresight Institute and Nuremberg Institute of Market Decisions reveals varied applications across industries, with the automobile sector leading at 56%. It emphasizes a shift from crisis anticipation to a strategic focus on competitive advantage, long-term opportunities, and innovation, reinforcing the strategic importance of corporate foresight for decision-makers.
With strategic foresight, leaders are focused on opportunity | World Economic Forum
Strategic foresight cannot predict the future, but it can help companies prepare for a variety of outcomes and identify new opportunities. A survey of hundreds of top executives has revealed how they're using strategic foresight in their business. They're using it — but how much and for what is a complex question, and industry-dependent.
Strategic foresight within organizations is primarily conducted by identifying business trends and crafting potential future scenarios. This process encompasses three key approaches:
Engaging external agencies, such as consulting firms and think tanks.
Implementing an ad hoc method, where individuals or teams not primarily tasked with strategic foresight contribute.
Utilizing dedicated internal teams or employees.
Research conducted by the Bavarian Foresight-Institute and Nuremberg Institute of Market Decisions reveals a shift towards a more professional approach, with a notable decline in ad hoc methods. Trend scanning frequently involves external sources to gain a wider range of perspectives. In contrast, trend analysis and interpretation are predominantly managed internally, capitalizing on specific organizational insights. Scenario planning, a notably intricate aspect of foresight, is equally distributed between internal and external execution.
The dissemination of strategic foresight findings is primarily achieved through reports, mainly authored by external consultants, and workshops that combine the expertise of both internal and external facilitators. The overarching aim is to transcend mere trend discussion, integrating these into comprehensive scenarios to envision future trajectories. This approach strives for an optimal balance between enhancing external viewpoints and cultivating internal strategic capabilities. The emphasis on interactive workshops aims to actively engage leaders and stakeholders in foresight thought processes, thus ensuring a meaningful impact on organizational decision-making.
For a deeper understanding of strategic foresight practices in companies, consider reading this related article:
Strategic Foresight: Why it matters | World Economic Forum
Exploring the intricacies of strategic foresight within organizations, this research, conducted by the Bavarian Foresight-Institute and Nuremberg Institute of Market Decisions (NIM), delves into the process and key players involved. Essential for corporations seeking change and transformation, this study aims to contribute valuable insights to the question of how strategic foresight is conducted and by whom within organizational settings.
Strategic Business Planning Insights
Podcast Series
Dive into the realm of corporate foresight with our podcast, 'Navigating the Future'. Join me as we deep dive into strategic thinking, scenario planning, and business wargaming. Acquire valuable insights to stay ahead in today's dynamic business landscape. Tune in for a strategic journey into the future!
As a professor heading the Foresight Institute and teaching in the Master's program of Global Foresight and Technology Management at Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt, my mission is clear: empowering organizations with the skills to navigate uncertain futures.
Explore practical steps for businesses to boost their future readiness. Gain insights into strategies for personal resilience in times of change and crises. Unveil the fascinating connection between science fiction and cutting-edge future research.
Join me in this captivating episode as we dive deep into the intricacies of this mission [ German only ]:
Business Uncertainties and Future Scenarios Explored
Join me on a journey of inquiry into the uncertainties that organizations face in an era of heightened complexity and rapid change. How do we conceptualize and approach the future amidst increasing uncertainty?
In this video I address these pressing questions, contemplating the existence of a singular future versus the acknowledgment of multiple potential futures. Let's navigate the intricacies of the future together [ Video in German language - Subtitles via video settings available ]:
Strategic Foresight Unpacked in My Comprehensive Book
Explore the core of Strategic Foresight and dive into its process in my book ‘Strategic Foresight: An Introductory Guide to Practice’ – a testament to my extensive research and practical on-field research.
Revolutionizing Design Thinking with Strategic Foresight
Research Highlights
My academic research on corporate foresight is clustered along several topics.
Design thinking has been identified as a core approach for innovation, in particular, due to its focus on customer needs. In my research, I try to shed light on what role the future and foresight can play in design thinking.
Explore the synergistic potential of integrating Strategic Foresight (SF) into Design Thinking (DT) in the article, "How to Anchor Design Thinking in the Future: Empirical Evidence on the Usage of Strategic Foresight in Design Thinking Projects." Published in Futures in March 2023, this research paper presents empirical findings on how SF methods can enhance DT projects, emphasizing their contribution to project success. Dive into the full article to unlock strategies for future-oriented innovation in design and management. For further queries or discussions, feel free to reach out.
The article "The usage of cultural products in design thinking: An assessment of an underestimated approach" by Jan Oliver Schwarz and Bernhard Wach explores the role of cultural products, like novels and movies, in design thinking. The study, based on a survey of 302 design thinkers, assesses how these products contribute to understanding customer needs and trends. It finds that, while less prevalent than other tools, cultural products positively impact the success of design thinking projects. The research suggests that integrating cultural products could be a valuable addition to the design thinking toolbox, especially among experienced professionals.
Discover the innovative approach of bridging strategic foresight with design-based innovation in the article, "Escaping the ‘Faster Horses’ Trap." This comprehensive piece, published in the Technology Innovation Management Review (September 2019), delves into the integration of forward-thinking methodologies to enhance design thinking processes. It offers valuable insights for those aiming to future-proof their strategies and stay ahead in rapidly evolving markets. This paper addresses in more general the question of how foresight and design-based innovation can be combined.
Intrigued? Dive into the full article for an in-depth exploration of this cutting-edge approach, or reach out for further discussion and insights.
Delve into the realm of customer-centric innovation with the article "The Customer Foresight Territory" published in the Marketing Review St. Gallen in January 2020. This piece explores the emerging field of customer foresight, blending customer research and foresight research to understand and anticipate customers' future needs. It's a valuable resource for professionals and academics interested in the intersection of market research, consumer behavior, and strategic foresight. For more detailed insights or to discuss the implications of customer foresight, feel free to reach out.
Understanding Tomorrow's Business Strategies
Trend Analysis
Trends and weak signals are crucial in corporate foresight, laying the groundwork for successful trend and scenario analysis. These methods help businesses spot emerging market patterns, crucial for informed strategy-making. Trend analysis interprets current market trends to forecast future shifts, while scenario analysis creates various potential future outcomes based on these trends.
Integrating trend and scenario analysis helps companies craft a thorough foresight strategy. This approach is vital for businesses to stay ahead in fast-changing markets and innovate effectively. It allows not just reacting to market changes but actively shaping the future, ensuring long-term success.
Discover the role of trends in strategic foresight in "Normality of the Future: Trend Diagnosis for Strategic Foresight", a must-read article from Futures (May 2010). It explores what trends are and their life-cycles, impacting market creation. This piece is a valuable resource for anyone in strategic management and foresight.
Megatrends are frequently mentioned in foresight discussions. But what does it mean when something is called a megatrend? "Perceiving Megatrends as Empty Signifiers: A Discourse-Theoretical Interpretation of Trend Management", also from Futures (March 2013), offers a unique view on megatrends. It questions common beliefs about megatrends in business, essential for those interested in trend management and organizational studies.
For a deeper dive into these topics or to discuss further, feel free to reach out.
The Power of Scenarios in Strategic Foresight
Scenarios are essential in strategic foresight, with scenario planning being a key method for companies to envision diverse future possibilities. This process involves creating detailed, realistic scenarios to help businesses navigate uncertainties and make better strategic choices. It's especially beneficial for companies in dynamic industries, aiding in thorough preparation for various future situations.
The article "Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming from an Open Strategy Perspective" explores how scenario planning and business wargaming can become more participative and transparent, aligning with the open strategy concept. It suggests that these tools can be adapted for wider involvement in strategy development.
Another read, "From Alternative Pictures of the Future to an Organizational Intervention", reflects on integrating scenario planning into organizational strategies. It highlights the shift from report-based planning to dynamic, strategic conversations within organizations.
The article "Combining Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming to Better Anticipate Future Competitive Dynamics", published in Futures in October 2018, presents a novel approach to corporate foresight. It explores how integrating scenario planning with business wargaming can enhance a firm's ability to anticipate and navigate future market dynamics. This method helps in identifying potential threats and opportunities, enabling firms to develop more robust strategies for maintaining competitive advantages in evolving markets. This approach is essential for businesses looking to innovate and adapt proactively in uncertain environments.
These articles offer valuable insights into the practical applications of scenario planning in modern business contexts.
Strategic Foresight's Role in Value Creation for Firms
What is the contribution of strategic foresight to a firm? How does foresight create value?
The article "Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities", published in Futures & Foresight Science in June 2020, examines the role of corporate foresight in enhancing dynamic capabilities within firms. It explores how training in corporate foresight at both organizational and individual levels can significantly contribute to developing these dynamic capabilities, especially in volatile and uncertain environments. The study integrates theoretical perspectives with empirical research, providing insights into how foresight practices and training can foster more adaptable and future-ready organizations.
I also explain this article in this video:
In this article I argue that the fashion industry is not long-term oriented enough and that corporate foresight could be of help.
The article "Strategy Orientation in the Fashion Industry: Short- or Long-Term?" published in the Journal of Futures Studies in January 2019, investigates whether the fashion industry's strategy development is more short-term or long-term focused. Using the dynamic capabilities theory, the paper assesses corporate foresight activities in the fashion industry through a multi-methodological research approach. The findings suggest that the fashion industry is less future-oriented in its strategy development compared to other industries, despite facing significant business environment challenges.
How does corporate foresight add value? This article addresses this question, also drawing on the experience of large European companies in executing foresight. The article "The Value Contribution of Strategic Foresight: Insights From an Empirical Study on Large European Companies", published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, explores the impact of strategic foresight activities in firms. It examines how these practices can create value by enhancing the ability to perceive, interpret, and respond to change, influence other actors, and foster organizational learning. The study is based on survey data from 77 large multinational firms, providing empirical evidence on the effectiveness of formalized strategic foresight practices. This article is a useful resource for understanding the practical benefits of strategic foresight in business environments.